RWM News and Press, ProShares Short Russell2000 From 02/21/22

The inflation story has peaked. Our concern has moved on to recession fears. The bond market is telling us that. Bonds are a bit oversold and could be due for a bounce, but the more esoteric areas of the bond market are calling for a recession, with rate cuts to follow probably in 202...

The latest leading economic data indicate that the US expansion is intact. There are signs that the pace of economic activity will slow markedly during the first half of this year. Money-supply trends warn that a boom-to-bust transition could begin as soon as the first half of thi...

The stimulus payments led to a short-term boost in PCE, corresponding with increased economic growth. However, stimulus-fueled activity has a dark side. Economic stagnation arrives as expected as the sugar rush of liquidity continues to fade from the system. When it comes to the s...

Conventional wisdom holds that the U.S. economy is overheating. The jury is still out, but the latest reading on the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow real-time growth measure is pretty grim. Economic spirits might change dramatically in the next few months, with corresponding changes i...

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index edged down in January from the previous month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors to adjust the forecast reduces GMI’s ex-ante risk premium to an annualized 5.4%. Th...

Today, very few investments generate income sufficient to meet reasonable future expenses after inflation and taxes. The inability to meet current and future expenses from dividend and interest payments is a sign of a highly priced market. This is the season where politicians and corp...

In addition to my array of systems of long and short leading indicators, I also have an alternative, fundamentals-based “consumer nowcast”. This system looks at the array of devices consumers have at their disposal to assist increased spending. When those systems are...

Sector rotation and rolling corrections continue, further complicating the investment backdrop. As the Fed starts to “taper”, no one can claim they were shocked. The interest rate situation is an entirely different story. Fear and Greed are the two emotions that tell...

High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. While all three timeframes remain positive, commodities and the US$ are in flux. Additionally, this week re...

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