SCHQ News and Press, Schwab Long-Term U.S. Treasury ETF From 08/22/23

2023-08-22 10:05:00 ET Summary Last week, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to levels not seen since 2008, and that had significant implications for stocks. I was encouraged by what we heard on earnings calls for major retailers last week, as they confirmed my positive views on c...

2023-08-22 07:00:00 ET Summary We have seen Chinese real estate and wealth management issues in years past, and they never came to a hard landing. China has once again slipped into deflation. The latest year-over-year inflation rate was -0.3%. A Chinese devaluation would be pa...

2023-08-22 06:55:00 ET Summary My interpretation is that market-based pricing is now clearly visible for the next two years. The riskless reference rates like SOFR or Fed funds or short-term T-bills are all saying that the policy-setting interest rates will be somewhere above 5% a...

2023-08-22 03:00:00 ET Summary As stocks have tumbled over the past three weeks again, bullish sentiment has started an abrupt reversal once more. The relative overvaluation in stocks versus government bonds is today more extreme than at any time in at least 35 years. Governme...

2023-08-21 21:00:00 ET Summary We believe the slowdown in inflation will likely be a drag on top line growth and a potential risk to operating leverage for companies, as real wages are still increasing amid a tight labor market. As long yields rise, this reversion of the yield cur...

2023-08-21 17:54:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 Index closed at a 2023 high on July 31, but since then the market is down -4.8% in the first three weeks of August. This year, fund flows have favored bond or fixed income investments. From a return perspective though, the market ...

2023-08-19 02:30:00 ET Summary The Jackson Hole meetings come at a particularly poignant time this year, because there is a great deal going on in securities markets and the economy at large. It took more than a year, but it finally seems to have sunk into the collective brain of ...

2023-08-17 10:30:00 ET Summary It’s been clear for some time that US recession risk has been sliding in recent months. It may turn out that Q3 data is strengthening, but that’s still a dicey proposition. For the moment, Fed funds futures are still pricing in high...

2023-08-17 08:45:00 ET Summary Key levels were hit on the US curve on Tuesday, within spitting distance of last October's yield highs. The issue here for risk assets is how to interpret the notion of a soft landing. There is still an upside for market rates to come, especially...

2023-08-16 21:10:00 ET Summary For much of the year the bond market has been embracing expectations that the Federal Reserve’s interest rates increases have peaked, or were about to peak. Inflation has continued to ease, but the market has continually discovered that the fu...