SCHR News and Press, Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Treasury From 04/08/24

2024-04-08 09:00:00 ET Summary Looking forward, our base case is that the Fed engineers a soft landing and starts to normalize policy rates in the second half of the year. In recent quarters, large-cap technology has outperformed in both higher and lower rate regimes. The weig...

2024-04-06 03:50:00 ET Summary For the past 12 months, despite the interest rates that the Fed jacked up to 5.25%, nearly 3 million nonfarm payroll jobs have been added. Average hourly earnings rose in March at an annualized rate of 4.3%, also according to the survey of employers,...

2024-04-06 02:50:00 ET Summary Prices will rise when the eagerness of buyers outpaces the eagerness of the sellers regardless of the depth of the market. This month’s labor report showed one of the sharpest slowdowns of recent years with the rate of change slowing from 4.6%...

2024-04-06 02:30:00 ET Summary We think the Fed peaked in July 2023. Technically, we won’t know for sure until they cut. But, had a Martian alien landed on Earth and simply eyeballed the current movement of the 10yr yield, they’d likely conclude that the Fed had not ...

2024-04-06 01:35:00 ET Summary As diligently as everyone is looking for signs of a consumer slowdown, the numbers keep telling us that household spending continues apace. The labor market is not showing signs of slowing. Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics s...

2024-04-05 08:25:00 ET Summary By January 2025, the Federal Reserve  is likely to be in an easing cycle, which may benefit the market regardless of who wins the election. A recent quote from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about the Fed, inflation, and confidence was music to my ears...

2024-04-05 07:05:00 ET Summary Every firm is expecting rate cuts anticipating a recession but there is no recession in sight. Employment has been rising with some believing the numbers are manipulated because they believed the PMI was literally screaming recession. Expectation...

2024-04-04 14:20:00 ET Summary The broadest measure of economic activity, growth in real GDP, slowed in the fourth quarter. The U-3 unemployment rate has edged higher from last April (3.4 percent) to February (3.9 percent). In a no-landing scenario, the unemployment rate would...

2024-04-04 08:45:00 ET Summary The fundamental outlook for bonds remains questionable at best. The leading indicators of growth and inflation for 2024 suggest both dynamics could put upside pressure on yields. Sentiment toward bonds remains bullish as the consensus is for yiel...

2024-04-04 03:25:00 ET Summary Inflation pressures remain quite subdued; disinflation is still in place. The market continues to harbor a long-ingrained reflex that says that in order for inflation to decline, the economy needs to weaken. Low and declining inflation and modera...