SCHX News and Press, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap From 01/29/23

Summary Yesterday’s weekly update on initial jobless claims suggests that the labor market will continue expanding. A pair of proprietary business-cycle indicators highlighted in the weekly updates of The US Business Cycle Research Report also show a modest contraction in progres...

Summary The Federal Reserve appears to be losing control of the market. Financial conditions have eased dramatically since the December FOMC meeting. The Fed needs to push back against the market before it is too late. It appears that the Federal Reserve is losing control ...

Summary The one truism which holds is that share prices and investor behavior do repeat even though the context is unique. The one element we can count on is that high pessimism is reflected in stock prices and other indicators with which investors can use to gauge market lows. One ...

Summary Amid speculation that the US could be slipping into a recession, upcoming flash PMI data will be eagerly assessed to gauge the business climate in the opening month of the year. The surveys from S&P Global have been sending especially weak signals for output and demand growt...

Summary Inflation is moving down. Fed actually has a more preferred measure of core inflation, which is core Personal Consumption Expenditures. The Fed is saying that a shallow recession basically is on the horizon. In our latest "Talking Markets" podcast, we meet with r...

Summary Recession forecasts are flying left and right lately, but the main pushback is the labor market. Notably, in the last three recessions, the year-over-year change in temp workers turned negative well ahead of the broad measure of private payrolls. Although new filings for une...

Summary US Large Cap stocks are still in a short-term downtrend but the long-term uptrend is intact. International Large Cap stocks are in a short-term uptrend versus US Large Cap. The trend has been driven by the falling dollar. US Large Cap value is in a short-term uptrend versus ...

Summary We already know about housing’s woes, but manufacturing, and now service-related gauges, are in contractionary territory. However, the latest jobs report continued to reveal that a rather solid labor market setting still exists. So, what if the U.S. economy manages th...

Summary After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges. Inflation is likely to moderate, and risks to the inflation outlook appear more balanced than they did severa...

Summary Yield curve inversion has occurred ahead of every U.S. recession since the 1950s. Today, nearly every yield term spread has inverted. Several features of the current yield curve are sending a very strong recession signal. Several characteristics of the U.S. Treas...