SCHX News and Press, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap From 05/17/23

2023-05-17 01:40:00 ET Summary We got two big data points on May 16th on the economy and both pointed to sluggish trends in growth. Retail sales and industrial production have a strong correlation with weak economic growth and both came in unusually weak last month. Industrial...

2023-05-16 23:35:00 ET Summary 2023 is now continuing that past pattern of growth and large-cap growth relative performance. If you look at the 10 and 15-year annualized returns across all the US equity asset classes, even straight value vs. growth, the returns are not all that ap...

2023-05-16 16:30:00 ET Summary Federal Reserve tightening cycles, without exception, have been associated with financial crises. Tightening lending standards, which has historically led to an economic downturn, is raising the likelihood of a recession. The bank failures may ma...

2023-05-13 09:13:00 ET Summary The shortest pauses in a 30-year period were the six months time-out in 1995 and the eight month wait-and-see in 2019. The pause periods that began in 1997 and 2006, by contrast, lasted more than a year. When the Greenspan Fed began raising rates...

2023-05-10 16:06:00 ET Summary Why a potential recession hasn't arrived yet and may not be as bad as expected? The latest corporate earnings haven't been strong, but are outperforming. Why many of last year's headwinds haven't materialized for markets? The la...

2023-05-10 01:59:00 ET Summary I think that the Fed had to take the olive branch that the market was extending to it with fully pricing in this rate hike. The First Republic going into receivership and having the merger there - I think from that vantage point, it was a win-win-win...

2023-05-10 01:05:00 ET Summary Economists have been forecasting a recession would happen since the Federal Reserve (Fed) started raising interest rates back in March 2022. The federal funds rate has risen almost 500 basis points since last year, as the Fed has aggressively attacke...

2023-05-09 02:25:00 ET Summary It's true that the Fed is very tight and the yield curve is very inverted - both being classical precursors to recessions in the past. While some observers note with concern the unprecedented decline in the M2 money supply over the past year, I view ...

2023-05-05 15:07:00 ET Summary With inflation still elevated and the labor market still “extraordinarily tight,” Fed chair Jerome Powell has kept the door slightly ajar for another hike. Markets had almost fully priced in a 25 bps rate increase, so the May 3rd decisi...

2023-05-04 15:47:00 ET Summary Why U.S. bank earnings suggest a modest recession? Potential impact of regional bank failures on the broader markets. When it comes to market uncertainty, is reality actually better than perception? The latest U.S. earnings seas...