SCHX News and Press, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap From 10/19/23

2023-10-19 10:30:00 ET Summary While the US economy has been resilient this year, the lagged effects of tightening are likely still to come. Inflation expectations, credit spreads, corporate credit, employment, and housing aren’t in recession territory. The yield curve,...

2023-10-18 20:55:00 ET Summary With all the attention given to the recent surge in Treasury (UST) yields, there has been an interesting by-product in the process: steepening yield curves. Remember when inverted yield curves were all the rage, and their historical track record was ...

2023-10-18 12:30:00 ET Summary The global outlook is being troubled by rising rates, oil prices and the U.S. dollar, resulting in investor risk aversion. Spiking bond yields are challenging the equity market’s soft landing assumption. With limited prospect of an upgrade to ...

2023-10-16 23:40:00 ET Summary The U.S. Federal Reserve has undertaken aggressive interest rate hikes in a bid to bring inflation back down to its target. In late 2022, many forecasters were warning of elevated recession risks in the near-term outlook (approximately 12-18 months a...

2023-10-14 03:55:00 ET Summary The risk of a crisis event in the economy is increasing, as the Fed’s "higher for longer" narrative is compromised by lagging economic data. The yield curve inversions occur roughly 10-24 months before a recession or crisis event. This is beca...

2023-10-13 04:00:00 ET Summary In the US economy, there’s been quite a bit of optimistic chatter focused on this idea of a soft landing. When you think about investing and mountain climbing, they’re both judged by the ability to move higher. Dividend growers tend...

2023-10-12 22:25:00 ET Summary Headline CPI came in at 3.7% today, but it’s at 2%, right on target, when you exclude shelter alone. This is pretty crucial in the broader context of what’s happening today because shelter is still running at 7.1% in the CPI when we kno...

2023-10-11 10:15:00 ET Summary Inflationary pressures will likely be higher going forward than they’ve been over the past two decades. Higher real interest rates are necessary in such an environment to keep inflation at target. Higher real interest rates put pressure on bot...

2023-10-11 01:05:00 ET Summary Over the past 12 months industrial production has been flat and the ISM Manufacturing Report has been warning of imminent recession. Despite the warnings from reliable leading indicators, the dominant view now is that there will be a “soft lan...

2023-10-10 01:03:00 ET Summary It’s hard to blame the bulls for their good cheer of late. Spiking inflation no longer dominates the headlines even as the U.S. economy has rebounded toward its long-term trend. Meanwhile, the labor market has started to ease (perhaps reducing...