SCHX News and Press, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap From 12/11/21

SCHX is a $34.4 billion fund that is supposed to track the performance of 750 public U.S. bellwethers. The fund has a razor-thin expense ratio, relatively low risk, and robust asset flows. As a U.S. large-cap play, SCHX scores poorly against value indicators, with the growth metri...

High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. While all three timeframes remain positive, commodities and the US$ are in flux. Additionally, this week re...

The post-lockdown economic recovery was driven by market mechanisms, but this option will not be available in the years ahead. The current inflation problem has less to do with the goal that the Fed is targeting. It is more likely due to factors, which are outside the Fed's influence....

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in November but remains elevated relative to recent history. Adjusting the forecast with short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors (defined below) reduces - substantially - GMI’s ex...

With the market's substantial rebound from September lows, I have updated the market-implied outlook for the S&P 500. The outlook to mid January remains bullish, but suggests some caution. The outlook improves by mid March, and volatility is expected to be moderate. The S&...

It feels as if the 'Santa Claus Rally' has started early this year. If history is of any indication, we're due for another ~4% over the next 8 weeks. Nonetheless, things are getting more and more bubbly, and the combination of Tapering, higher inflation, and higher rates is anything b...

The recent run higher in the Sharpe ratio for the Global Market Index finally reversed in October. Risk-adjusted performance has slipped, but GMI's rebound in October lifted it to a new record high. GMI is useful as a baseline to begin research on asset allocation and portfolio de...

A recession will come to the United States economy, but not in 2022. Homebuilders will construct as many homes as they can, though that will be limited by buildable lots, skilled labor and building materials. If the Fed avoids an over-reaction recession, it risks not bringing infl...

Last Thursday, the Commerce Department announced that its preliminary estimate for third-quarter growth was an anemic 2%. This was partly due to the fact that consumer spending grew at only a 1.6% annual pace, down from a torrid 12% annual pace in the second quarter. The Commerce Depa...

The long-run risk premium forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) rebounded in October, edging up to 6.1%, based on revised numbers through last month. The new estimate is calculated in terms of the projected return over the “risk-free” rate, according to a risk-based...