SJB News and Press, ProShares Short High Yield From 09/03/22

Summary "What's working" is natural gas and not much else; "What's Not Working" is dominated by digital assets and other "risk on" indicators. The "Nothing is Working" Market. A New Bond Strategy - "Enhanced Bond Portfolio". Brian Dress, CFA - Director of Research, Inv...

The 50bp vs. 75bp hike in September is a big standoff in the treasuries markets. Treasury markets are very much doubting the path of Fed policy in 2023. Markets are discounting cuts next year. If the Fed is serious about bringing inflation down, which I think it is and the Fed has sai...

The revised long-term outlook projects an annualized return of 4.9%. The current risk premium forecast for GMI suggests that multi-asset-class strategies overall will generate lower returns relative to results posted in recent years. Combining forecasts via several models may prov...

We have a bit too much cash on hand and want to find other ways to take advantage of effective trades other than shorting the market (which we got covered), states Steve Reitmeister of Reitmeister Total Return. For further details see: Short High-Yield Bonds

The expected risk premium continued sliding in April for the Global Markets Index (GMI). Tuesday’s revision reflects a drop to a 5.4% annualized increase for the long term – a relatively large cut of 40 basis points from last month’s estimate. The forecast ref...

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index ticked slightly higher in March to an annualized 5.8% pace, fractionally above last month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors (defined below) to adjust the forecast trims GMI&#...

The Federal Reserve will soon start raising the federal funds rate. All long-only Treasury bill and bond ETFs will continue to have negative returns because of this. A way to mitigate the impact on a bond portfolio is to invest in inverse bond ETFs, and there are eight to choose f...

As the world reels from the crisis, the blowback is rippling across the world economy and markets. The current risk premia analysis implicitly recommends managing expectations down for GMI and other global multi-asset-class portfolios. The mean reversion factor is estimated as the...

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index edged down in January from the previous month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors to adjust the forecast reduces GMI’s ex-ante risk premium to an annualized 5.4%. Th...

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in November but remains elevated relative to recent history. Adjusting the forecast with short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors (defined below) reduces - substantially - GMI’s ex...