SPGP News and Press, Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF From 09/29/22

Summary We laid out our case as to why a walk-back might be in the cards. Weakest Month of the Year is September. Managers Sentiment/Positioning for the Apocalypse. In last week’s note, we laid out our case as to why a walk-back might be in the cards – ...

Summary Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance fell by 16,000 for the week ending September 24th, coming in at 193,000. The number of ongoing claims for state unemployment programs totaled 1.276 million for the week ending September 10th, a rise of 6,029 from the ...

Summary With a drop back below 200K, claims have fallen back below the range from the couple of years prior to the pandemic. For the comparable week of the year, this most recent reading of 156.1K was the lowest since 1969 and was only slightly above the seasonal low from a couple...

Summary The Fed is embarking on an almost Volcker-style campaign to slain inflation once and for all, but we think they are overdoing it and risk a hard landing. Inflation was caused by one-off events that have already reversed and things beyond the control of the Fed, which is he...

Summary What does the future hold for the dividends of the S&P 500 (SPX) now that we're reaching the end of the third quarter of 2022? We're now in the gap between when the index's dividend futures contracts for 2022-Q3 have expired and the actual end of the calendar quar...

Summary The current bear market feels more painful than usual because of how broad it has been. Some investors are hopeful the 3,600 level on the S&P 500 marks a bottom for US stocks. Hope will not help, but fortunately, there are better indicators for gauging when this be...

Summary Near-term, inflation will remain elevated. We anticipate at least another 100–150 b.p. of tightening from major central banks in the next few months. There are already signs of an economic slowdown globally, but household finances are robust, corporate balance sheet...

Summary What a strong U.S. dollar will mean for earnings. What the bond market is telling us about the likelihood of a hard landing. Don't expect markets to hit bottom until rates have peaked. From surging inflation to rising rates, recession worries, and geo...

Summary The Fed first warned us of their intentions back in April. Markets had held firm in the months that followed but now finally appear to be on the verge of a crash. An equity crash almost always leads to a liquidity squeeze where all assets get sold due to margin pressures a...

Summary Inflation as measured by government indices (e.g., CPI, PCE Deflator) is a lagging indicator of true inflation. True inflation is defined as the loss of purchasing power of a currency. Right now that is just not the case: the dollar is soaring against nearly every currency...