SPHB News and Press, Invesco S&P 500 High Beta From 09/20/22

Summary The consensus expectation on Tuesday for August CPI was for a 0.1% decline, but the positive +0.1% monthly gain in the CPI shocked Wall Street. This inflation news spooked Treasury bond yields, pushing 10-year yields up from 3.36% on Monday to 3.42% on Tuesday. Now tha...

Summary The financial markets were shocked by the US CPI for August. The evidence continues to accumulate that inflation is now in a downward trend. The monthly chart shows that the numbers remain very high relative to everything over the past twenty years prior to the past fe...

Summary Nobody knows how high interest rates have to rise in order to slow and ultimately reverse the recent rise in inflation. Only excess money causes inflation, and there seems to be a lot less of it recently, which is great news. Supply chain bottlenecks are clearing up ra...

Summary Data can easily mislead, but they can also inform. Although the U.S. began consistently to run annual trade deficits in 1976, the negative impact on employment growth that protectionists predict did not materialize. No data or sets of graphs, regardless of how carefull...

Summary As we start the third week of September, with the US Fed’s much-telegraphed rate hike on Wednesday (+.75 with some 30% betting odds of a full percent!), markets are peaked. To date, Canada’s TSX -13% is just a quarter through the price correction experienced ...

Summary Many pundits believe that the Federal Reserve erred in not withdrawing monetary stimulus fast enough - I'm not one of them. Data proves that energy prices have been the main component of inflation and that's the fault of Saudi Arabia and Russia, not the Fed. Tightening...

Summary After the August inflation report card flunked, the Fed meets this week to further address inflation. Markets expect either a 75 bps or a 100 bps hike. The "Everything Bubble" is rapidly deflating as the Fed pivots to allow markets to clear rather than artificially support...

Summary By the end of the trading week, the S&P 500 retreated to 3,873.33, some 19.2% below its 3 January 2022 all-time record high. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects a three-quarter point rate hike next week (2022-Q3), which investors are now betting will be followed by ...

Summary The U.S. CPI report is still the most important economic report of the month. The violent sell-off in response to what was a small upside surprise to U.S. core inflation in August is all you need to know. Markets would like to see a sustained roll-over in inflation and an ...

Summary The market has changed direction 11 times this year. I examine and comment on each of these distinct legs. I end with my expectations about where we go from here. Overview - 2022 year-to-date On January 3rd, the S&P 500 recorded its last new high ...