SPHB News and Press, Invesco S&P 500 High Beta From 02/22/23

Summary If the Fed won’t follow the bond market, maybe the bond market will follow the Fed. Last year’s decline in stocks was not about earnings but about rising interest rates. Shorting options tend to suppress volatility indexes, which is one reason why the VIX has b...

Summary As we exit the peak period of earnings season, we review the S&P 500 2022 Q4 earnings season in more detail, providing both aggregate and company level insights. Using data from the February 17th S&P 500 Earnings Scorecard, 81% of constituents have reported results (88% ...

Summary The S&P 500 Index has rebounded sharply off its previous low in October, closing up 14% on Feb. 17 since October’s trough. The market could continue to rally, of course. Running the numbers based on rolling 1-year return suggests there’s still a fair amount...

Summary The S&P 500 (SPX) retreated 0.3% from the previous week's close to reach a value of 4079.09 during the trading week ending on Friday, 17 February 2023. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's projection for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023 rose to +2.5% from its pre...

Summary Why the U.S. economy continues to display polyurethane-like flexibility and resilience, despite encountering extraordinary shocks. How portfolios can also be built with flexibility and resilience in mind. Why high-quality fixed income assets are today a critical component of...

Summary One of the phrases making the rounds among the financial media chatterboxes this week has been “no landing”. The macro news has indeed given some cause for cheer relative to some of the more dour scenarios we’ve been looking at in the past few months. Wh...

Summary It’s clear that there is little reason for sell-side analysts to stick their neck and raise estimates, in this environment. The S&P 500’s YTD return as of Thursday night’s, February 16, 2023, close was +6.76%. It looks like 2023 could see flat revenu...

Summary The forward 12-month EPS is a time-weighted average between FY1 (2023) and FY2 (2024). During the height of the pandemic, we saw aggressive downgrades in EPS estimates during March-June 2020 as shown in the 2020, 2021 , and 2022 worm. Both the Russell 1000 and Russell 1000 G...

Summary One hypothesis we're currently evaluating behind the scenes is that the multiplier may have shifted to zero at the beginning of the year. Unlike changes in dividend expectations that are easy to identify, the factors that cause the dividend futures-based model's basic multiplier...

Summary Economic news has caused market participants to be looking the wrong way over these last 5 months. While news reports can act as a catalyst for market moves, the substance of the news is often unimportant in determining a directional bias. As long as highlighted support hold...