STPP News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP ILN REDEEM 13/08/2020 USD 50 - Ser A From 04/17/19

Six Months of Flattening I’ve been publishing on the yield curve since November, and in that time, the curve has undergone some changes. All yield data comes from your good friends, the economists at the US Treasury . For some time, the most obvious feature of the curve was...

Yield Curve Inverts On March 22nd of this year, financial news outlets reported the first yield curve inversion since 2007 (see chart below). A yield curve represents interest rates, at a point in time, across treasury securities of varying maturities. A normal curve slopes consistently up...

The purpose of this article is to assess the macro-fiscal flows for March 2019 and determine what effect these flows will have on the stock market and the economy. Macro fiscal flows impact investment markets with a lagged effect of typically one month. A flush of funds now from government s...

A sign of the times when central banks make decisions based upon what is happening elsewhere in the world. “Fed Worried About Slowing Global Growth in Pausing Rate Increases” read the headlines in the New York Times . Jim Tankersley begins his article by writing “Fede...

The first quarter of 2019 saw a marked change in the equity and bond markets from the very difficult conditions we faced in the last quarter of 2018. Jerome Powell, head of the United States Federal Reserve ("the Fed"), and his team of central bankers almost singlehandedly caused the steep mar...

Stocks bounced back in the first quarter with the best quarterly start for the S&P 500 Index since 2009, up 13.5%, after a weak showing at the end of last year. We have said in the past that strength tends to beget more strength. LPL Research noted in a recent report that there have been...

By Jeremy Schwartz, CFA In last week's "Behind the Markets" podcast, Liqian Ren and I were joined by two guests to discuss all things Federal Reserve (Fed) and the implications (or lack thereof) for the markets, and investment strategy and financial advice. Timothy Duy, economics profess...

One key feature of the last 15 months has been the consistent declines in the global manufacturing PMI. After peaking in December 2017, the global manufacturing PMI has undergone a major slowdown, and that was a key driver behind the weakness in global markets last year (and a reflection of st...

As I have written many times before, I believe that the Fed follows the market and does not lead it. In fact, you can read my last article on the matter right here, as it explains this perspective using many historical examples. So, in following up on this perspective, let’s see if ...

For the past ten years or so, I have argued that investors in the stock market have placed most of their attention on the behavior of the Federal Reserve System. For much of this time Federal Reserve officials led by Chairman Ben Bernanke overtly focused on the stock market with the intentio...