STPP News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP ILN REDEEM 13/08/2020 USD 50 - Ser A From 05/29/19

Morgan Stanley calculates that an adjusted yield curve -- that takes into account quantitative easing and tightening -- has been inverted for the past six months. More news on: VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Medium-Term ETN, iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN, ProShares VIX Mid...

By Jeffrey Kleintop Over the past 30 years, stock markets around the world have rallied after the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked interest rates for the last time in the economic cycle. The rallies have varied in length and strength, but eventually break down as the late cycle environment enco...

Introduction Is your favored metric housing or the yield curve? Depending on which one you prefer, the economy is either careening towards recession or else “no worries.” Because the two very important leading metrics are giving completely different signals this spring. Is t...

As many long-term followers of my economic research are well aware, I have been a bull on Treasury bonds since 2017, citing slower economic growth and weaker inflation. Interest Rates Will Always Follow Nominal GDP Growth Trends: Source: BEA, FRED, BLS, EPB Macro Research I started...

The U.S. economy now appears to be heading into Quad 4 market scare. In our model, Quad 4 is an environment of U.S growth slowing, inflation slowing . That spells trouble ahead for the market. And so the question becomes, how will the Federal Reserve react? And how fast? In this ...

Barring a dramatic turn, May will be the worst month of 2019 for many major global benchmarks. Indeed, it will likely be the first down month of the year for stocks. The proximate cause is obvious: The trade war between the world's two largest economies is back on. The re-escalation of trade...

Right now, the Federal Reserve seems to be doing very well. Because the Federal Reserve seems to be dong very well and seems to be controlling the situation, the value of the US dollar has strengthened this year and shows many signs of moving even higher. The value of the US dollar is an i...

The BCI at 257.7 is below last week's upward revised 258.8, and is below the previous high of this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 89.8. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 14.2 is below last week’s 14.2. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp n...

Me Want 3-Year Bond So, like, this is happening: US Treasury The entire curve is inverted with the 6-month bill, and the 3-month is not far behind. Everything from the 1-year on is inverted with Fed Funds. As you can see, investors cannot get enough of the 2 through 5-year maturities...

In the past few years, I wrote a lot about the unprecedented credit crisis I foresee. I call it “The Great Reset.” I have to add, it isn’t what I think the future should look like or what I want to see. But almost the entire developed world has painted itself into a...