STPP News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP ILN REDEEM 13/08/2020 USD 50 - Ser A From 02/07/19

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Yesterday, I asked the question, “ Which is Right? The Bond Market or the Stock Market? .” Prices in both markets had been rising over the past month, or two, or three. This is not the usual situation, so it was natural to raise the question about which market is right about ...

Editor's note: This article was originally published on February 3, 2019, by Menzie Chinn here . It's kind of limiting to look only at recessions as predicted by the yield curve. What about growth? I run regressions of 4-quarter GDP growth (in log terms) as a function of one-year la...

I have discussed how there is a sort of mental accounting problem with the yield curve model. The zero-slope is treated as a constant, when, in fact, meaningful inversion happens at low yields when the 10-year yield is as much as 1% higher than the fed funds rate, and at higher yields, the i...

The euphoria that carried the stock market to an 8% gain in January all but erased the pessimism that led to one of the worst December's on record, when the S&P 500 ( SPY ) fell nearly 9%. Net, over the past two months, there has been a lot of chop, volatility and constantly shifting narr...

A successful investor is a born cynic worrying more about downside risks than upside potential. Investing has only gotten more complicated over the years as we consider the intricacies of globalization and shifts in the political winds. We have been living in a VUCA (volatile, uncertain, compl...

A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginning and end of recessions (Appendix B charts the UER recession indicator for the period 1948 to 2015). The unemployment rate model ( article link ) updated with the January 2019 rate...

What the Fed did and said Wednesday Facts first, interpretation second, trading and investing thoughts last. Here is the key part of what the Federal Open Market Committee's statement said Wednesday: ...the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2...

The BCI at 243.9 is below above last week's 244.7, and remains below this business cycle’s peak as indicated by the BCIp at 57.0. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 5.6 is above last week’s 5.4. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs ...

By Collin Martin As expected, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept its key short-term interest rate steady, maintaining the 2.25% to 2.5% target range for the Federal Funds rate.¹ The decision was unanimous. However, although the rate was left unchanged, updates to the Federal Open...