TMF News and Press, Direxion Daily 20-Yr Treasury Bull 3x Shrs From 04/05/24

2024-04-05 08:25:00 ET Summary By January 2025, the Federal Reserve  is likely to be in an easing cycle, which may benefit the market regardless of who wins the election. A recent quote from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about the Fed, inflation, and confidence was music to my ears...

2024-04-05 07:05:00 ET Summary Every firm is expecting rate cuts anticipating a recession but there is no recession in sight. Employment has been rising with some believing the numbers are manipulated because they believed the PMI was literally screaming recession. Expectation...

2024-04-04 14:20:00 ET Summary The broadest measure of economic activity, growth in real GDP, slowed in the fourth quarter. The U-3 unemployment rate has edged higher from last April (3.4 percent) to February (3.9 percent). In a no-landing scenario, the unemployment rate would...

2024-04-04 08:45:00 ET Summary The fundamental outlook for bonds remains questionable at best. The leading indicators of growth and inflation for 2024 suggest both dynamics could put upside pressure on yields. Sentiment toward bonds remains bullish as the consensus is for yiel...

2024-04-04 03:25:00 ET Summary Inflation pressures remain quite subdued; disinflation is still in place. The market continues to harbor a long-ingrained reflex that says that in order for inflation to decline, the economy needs to weaken. Low and declining inflation and modera...

2024-04-03 09:20:00 ET Summary Markets are still pricing in moderate odds that easing will start at the end of the second quarter, but the incoming data is providing more support for again pushing the date for a dovish policy pivot further down the road. The caveat is that the 2-y...

2024-04-03 08:30:00 ET Summary Market swings punctuated the first quarter as “central bank speak” proliferated and caused confusion. I put first quarter global markets into perspective and highlight some “little victories” that may have been easy to ove...

2024-04-03 03:20:00 ET Summary After a sharp decline in yield during Q4 2023, Treasury yields rose during Q1 2024. We experienced significant increases in 10- and 30-year Treasuries, as they rose 31 bps to 4.19% and 30.6 bps to 4.336%, respectively. Spreads on investment-grade...

2024-04-02 15:00:00 ET Summary The number of job vacancies remains elevated, but is moving into better balance with the supply of available workers. A slowing quit rates suggests a broader cooling is happening, which implies a moderation in labour cost growth that will help ease b...

2024-04-02 14:15:00 ET Summary Yields have surged across fixed income in the new regime. In Q2, we stay nimble and selective, preferring short-term sovereign bonds and high yield credit. The S&P 500 jumped 10% in Q1 even as bond yields rose on markets pricing out rate cuts. In...