TYBS News and Press, Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 1X Shares Direxion Shares ETF Trust From 02/18/20

By Jeff Weniger, CFA Here's your 2.03%. Take it or leave it. That's probably what the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index would say if it could talk. We think the classic "60/40" asset allocation-60% equities, 40% bonds-has a problem. Aggregate bonds returned 5% annually in ...

The Fed must now accept responsibility for what happens in the end-game of the Moral-Hazard Monster Bubble it created. Contrary to popular opinion, the Federal Reserve didn't set out to create a Monster Bubble that has escaped its control. Also contrary to popular opinion, the Fed will b...

The Fed's interventions in the repo market are attracting considerable comment. A lot of people seem to think the Fed has embarked on another QE program without Congressional approval. And the usual suspects are complaining that the Fed is pumping up stock prices and debasing the dollar. Stock...

During its brief and utterly failed attempt to reduce its balance sheet (called quantitative tightening), the Federal Reserve only rolled off securities at a rate of $50 billion a month. It is now purchasing US treasuries at a rate of more than $55 billion a month: The Federal Reserve ...

Investment thesis: With the Fed on hold regarding interest rates (see below) there is no trading effect from central bank activity. The Treasury market still has a strong safety bid caused by the coronavirus. This will, at a minimum, provide a modest floor underneath prices. But with the 10-...

Don't fight the Fed, as the saying goes. But at this point, it's reasonable to ask how much fight the Federal Reserve (Fed) has left. The Fed played an oversized role in stimulating markets over the past decade and became an indefinite backstop. But what's the line in the sand that the Fed wil...

There is, at least, one highly recognized economist who agrees with me that a recession started forming in the summer of 2019 and is still emerging in spite of the Fed's strongest efforts to stop it - David Rosenberg. We recall all too well the euphoria that followed the early 2001...

Despite the Fed's proclamations, the dollar lost purchasing power at a good clip. The inflation measure by the Cleveland Fed - the " Median CPI " - rose at 0.3% in January from December. This translates into an annualized rate of 3.7%. For the 12-month period, the Median CPI rose 2.9%. Sin...

It happened before, in 2012-2013, but the US economy muddled through a soft patch. Is it different this time? It's a question worth pondering as the global economy struggles to model the spreading coronavirus that's weighing on China and, increasingly, reverberating in economies around the wor...

Nope, this is no attestation about Disney. This has nothing to do with any park, though sometimes it can be amusing. This is a very macro comment about how the markets are lining up these days. We are currently being driven by themes, in a manner that is relatively new. For quite a while it ...