UBN News and Press, E-TRACS USB Bloomberg Commodity Index Exchange Traded Notes UBS Bloomberg CMCI Energy ETN From 07/06/22

As many countries look to replace Russian energy, the abundance of resources in the US has taken on new importance – for both the US and its allies. The growth in US energy production over the last 10+ years has facilitated a downward trend in imports and a rise in exports, mak...

Recession fears and an accelerated Federal Reserve interest rate hiking trajectory weighed on markets during the second quarter, resulting in the weakest first half performance since 1970. The short end of the yield curve increased dramatically during Q2, with policy interest rates st...

Commodities prices have spiked as demand from the restart clashed with tightening supply. We see the war and net-zero transition keeping prices high. U.S. and euro area inflation data last week showed still-persistent inflation. Stocks and bond yields fell as markets priced more risk ...

Once the COVID distortions are over the economy will return to its previous state of roughly 2% growth and 2% inflation. Real sales of durable goods surged throughout COVID but accelerated rapidly with stimulus payments; sales peaked right as Biden’s American Rescue Act was imp...

We are nowhere near demand destruction for oil and gas. Blackouts, brownouts, surging prices are crashing the green energy narrative. Interestingly, people like electricity and get really grumpy when its not there. We think a golden age of renewal for non-renewables is about to be...

The transition towards a decarbonized economy is underway. It will involve a massive reallocation of resources. Economies will be reshaped as carbon emissions are cut, inevitably impacting portfolios. A possible acceleration from the current path, plus repricing that could have furthe...

We expect elevated inflation to continue into 2023 due to the lagged impact of food supply disruption and elevated energy costs. Should a recession occur, its scale is likely to be limited by the reduced number of negative feedback loops. Consumers enter this slowdown with a large...

The gap between energy stocks and consumer discretionary stocks is striking. We think the market is suggesting that extreme energy inflation will lead to a dramatic reduction in spending. If consumer spending turns out to be more resilient than the market expects, we think the con...

We remain cautious in equities, but in fixed income, investors now have more yield and credit spread to work with. We think that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes for this cycle are becoming increasingly priced into the yield curve. Our fixed income team has stress-tested fo...

U.S. President Joe Biden has criticized oil majors for not stepping up to help combat record-high gasoline prices at the pump. Looking at Refinitiv Datastream, we observe U.S. oil production to see if oil companies have been increasing production since the pandemic. In reality, oi...