UBT News and Press, ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury From 10/16/23

2023-10-16 11:05:00 ET Summary Our proprietary signal has flashed red twice in the last several weeks. Does the double signal something more ominous approaching? The Fed pointed to the soaring 10-year yields and term premiums as indicators that its job of tightening monetary polic...

2023-10-16 05:44:00 ET Summary The CPI report didn’t seem to have much impact with rates little changed an hour after the report but bond selling was persistent all day. We think we are in the midst of a secular change in the trend for inflation and interest rates. The down...

2023-10-16 05:18:00 ET Summary According to Morningstar, the iShares TLT’s SEC yield, is 4.85%, while the 12-month yield is 3.57%, thus splitting the difference on the TLT yield puts the average around 4.2%. The flip side of the Treasury valuation argument is that the Treas...

2023-10-14 03:55:00 ET Summary The risk of a crisis event in the economy is increasing, as the Fed’s "higher for longer" narrative is compromised by lagging economic data. The yield curve inversions occur roughly 10-24 months before a recession or crisis event. This is beca...

2023-10-14 01:20:00 ET Summary While the direct market impact of geopolitical conflict is typically short-lived, the macro impacts can often linger. The key macro concerns from the developments in Israel lie with the threat of upward pressure on oil prices. Global economic gro...

2023-10-14 00:50:00 ET Summary The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation continues to edge towards the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) 2% target. Annual headline inflation remained unchanged at 3.7%, but core inflation eased from 4.3% to 4.1%, marking ...

2023-10-13 04:00:00 ET Summary In the US economy, there’s been quite a bit of optimistic chatter focused on this idea of a soft landing. When you think about investing and mountain climbing, they’re both judged by the ability to move higher. Dividend growers tend...

2023-10-13 01:30:00 ET Summary Gasoline accounts for about half of the total energy CPI. After a steep hard plunge in energy prices in the second half last year, the process reversed this year. New vehicles CPI rose for the second month in a row in September from August. ...

2023-10-13 00:30:00 ET Summary An inverted yield curve, with short-term debt yielding more than long-term bonds, benefits net interest income for households. Sticky wage inflation is likely to support core inflation longer unless there is some weakness in the labor market. The...

2023-10-12 22:25:00 ET Summary Headline CPI came in at 3.7% today, but it’s at 2%, right on target, when you exclude shelter alone. This is pretty crucial in the broader context of what’s happening today because shelter is still running at 7.1% in the CPI when we kno...