VCR News and Press, Vanguard Consumer Discretion From 03/19/21

Total industrial production declined by -2.2% in February, while manufacturing production declined -3.1%. Both of these were the first declines of any significance since last April. Nominal retail sales declined -3.0%. After adjusting by the CPI, real retail sales declined -3.4%. ...

While the global inflation picture remains fixed at firmly normal (as in, disinflationary), US retail sales by contrast have been highly abnormal. Overall IP was down 2.2% in February 2021 when compared to January, which represented a recession-like 4.2% lower level versus February 20...

Retail sales and food-services spending fell 3.0 percent in February pulling back from a record high in January. Core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicle dealers and gasoline retailers, posted a 3.3 percent drop for the month following a record high in January. Comparing the...

Real Retail Sales report a sharp increase for January after a short correction following consumers stocking up for the COVID lockdowns. Gasoline prices, which have risen sharply from RBOB Gasoline $1.41/gal to $1.59/gal in January 2020, actually fell as part of the mix in this report,...

After 3 months of declines, we saw a huge upturn in retail sales in January. Before adjusting for inflation, retail sales jumped 5.3%. After adjusting for inflation, sales were up 5.0% to a new all-time high. This is very good news and adds to the evidence that once the pandemic i...

Headline sales came in at 5.3% month-over-month to one decimal and was well above the Investing.com forecast of 1.1%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 5.9% MoM. January headline and core sales were up and better than forecasts. For further details see: Retail Sales Up 5....

The injection of stipends account for the boosted spending in January 2021. Unadjusted, total retail sales rose 5.80% year-over-year last month. Consumer spending which didn't happen during the final three months of 2020 was made up in the first one of 2021. For further deta...

Retail sales and food-services spending jumped 5.3 percent in January following 3 consecutive declines from October through December. Core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicle dealers and gasoline retailers, posted a sharp 6.1 percent surge for the month following decreases of 2....

New absolute momentum assets are used in dual momentum strategies applied to a portfolio of Vanguard sector ETFs. In addition to momentum strategies with monthly or quarterly rebalancing, we developed a strategy that changes allocations as soon as market state changes. The new str...

Risk assets continued their historic run last week with EM equities and commodities leading the way. Bonds sold off as the 10-year Treasury note yield broke above 1.20% for the first time since the lows last spring. The 10-year TIPS yield closed the week at 1.02%, near the all-tim...