VCR News and Press, Vanguard Consumer Discretion From 07/15/22

Retail sales and food-services spending rose 1% in June following a 0.1% decline in May. In real terms, total retail sales were down 0.3% (adjusted using the CPI) in June, following a 1.1% decrease in May. Core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicle dealers and gasoline retaile...

Starbucks has raised its menu prices three times since October, proving the company has pricing power to combat inflation. A potential upcoming recession could be troubling for Starbucks, but could also eliminate smaller coffee shops that are competing. Starbucks' stance against u...

This year has been one for the record books. Inflation is at a level last seen in 1982, the S&P 500 return this year is its worst start to a year since 1970, and it is the worst start for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index since 1962. Investors had few areas to invest in that ...

Persistently elevated rates of price increases and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle are impacting economic activity. The outlook is for continued economic growth, but risks remain elevated. The combination of record-high home prices and sharply higher mortgage rates have sent ...

For Q2 2022, the Refinitiv Retail/Restaurant Index is looking at a -7.6% blended estimated earnings growth rate, and an 8.4% blended estimated revenue growth rate. Currently, low-income consumers are being squeezed the most in the absence of stimulus checks that last year boosted thei...

External factors are favorable for Mastercard to provide an average of 10-11% revenue growth year-on-year in the next 5 years. The current bear market and short-term market fear could drive the price down by another 6-7%, but in the long term, Mastercard is positioned for steady growt...

Elon Musk agreed to buy Twitter for $54.20, but has been trying to get a lower price ever since. With Musk, TWTR has a significant upside. Without Musk, TWTR has a limited downside. Meanwhile, Tesla is facing many challenges that are unlikely to get any better over the next 6-12 m...

Tesla is the world’s leading electric vehicle manufacturer. The company’s shares are down more than 40% from their 52-week high, which in the current environment is relatively resilient for expensive tech stocks. The future of this business is somewhat shrouded in my...

Tesla has never been through a recession equivalent to 2008 as a market leader, the company has grown through a bull market. The company is potentially entering a new recession with new factories draining billions and increasing competition. Owning a car company is expensive, and ...

The gap between energy stocks and consumer discretionary stocks is striking. We think the market is suggesting that extreme energy inflation will lead to a dramatic reduction in spending. If consumer spending turns out to be more resilient than the market expects, we think the con...