VGLT News and Press, Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF From 09/17/22

Summary The market is telegraphing that what the Fed is planning to do is potentially destructive to the economy. Why does the Fed still think the only way to lower inflation is to undermine the economy? That's Phillips Curve thinking, and it has been debunked countless times. ...

Summary Despite all-time record revenues for August, spending jumped from $439B last August to $523B this August, a YoY increase of almost 20%. Interest Expense is the 6th largest budget expense, nearly $250B below the next expense of Medicare. The recent drop in Individual In...

Summary With inflation at the highest level in decades and volatility continuing to surge, equity investors are questioning their next moves. At the beginning of the year, financial conditions were very loose by any means historically, and we've very rapidly moved from loose finan...

Summary My last bullish call on EDV didn't go so well. But you know what they say: If at first, you don't succeed, try, try again. Long-term Treasuries have been absolutely crushed by stubbornly high inflation and the Fed's stubborn persistence to squash it. Cathie Wood has be...

Summary The US CPI reading kicked off the latest curve flattening leg, but the coordinated hawkishness of ECB officials is helping to extend it. The 2-10Y EUR OIS curve has inverted, and the German curve should eventually follow. The ECB has successfully shielded sovereign spr...

Summary Since the start of the year my largest position has been cash. Cash rarely performs well but it has performed well in 2022 and now the yield on the 3-month Treasury is over 3%. Monetary policy continues to be restrictive which further supports cash over risk assets. ...

Summary The Fed has been raising rates at its fastest pace in four decades in an attempt to combat inflation, but there has been talk of a pivot in its approach. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of another 75 bps rate hike at the FOMC’s September meeting ...

Summary Starting today, the US Fed has pledged to run off its balance sheet by $95 billion a month. Fed fund futures predict that US policy rates will move to 3%-3.25% next week and 4.25%-4.5% by early 2023. Bond yields and interest rates should be topping out if a Fed pause c...

Summary Over the last month, there has been a continuation of the significant market volatility that has dominated much of 2022. Inflation fears have driven markets and, as happened in the first half of the year, both equities and bonds have sold off. The fundamental issue of ...

Summary There is abundant evidence that inflation pressures are cooling. I can't emphasize enough that this inflation flare-up was not caused by a Fed policy error: it was caused by the federal government's attempt to soften the blow of Covid lockdowns. Inflation would remain ...