VGLT News and Press, Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF From 09/19/22

Summary Nobody knows how high interest rates have to rise in order to slow and ultimately reverse the recent rise in inflation. Only excess money causes inflation, and there seems to be a lot less of it recently, which is great news. Supply chain bottlenecks are clearing up ra...

Summary The negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread has now persisted for 53 trading days, widening significantly this week to a negative 45 basis points from negative 23 basis points last week. This week’s simulation shows that the most likely range for the 3-month U.S. Tr...

Summary The Fed has been raising short-term interest rates from near zero during 2022, with guidance that more hikes are to come. The Fed has not yet pushed short-term rates into what most economists would deem as “neutral” territory. Recession risks rise only wh...

Summary The U.S. CPI report is still the most important economic report of the month. The violent sell-off in response to what was a small upside surprise to U.S. core inflation in August is all you need to know. Markets would like to see a sustained roll-over in inflation and an ...

Summary Mitigating the impact of inflation might mean cutting interest rate sensitivity by favoring shorter-dated fixed income but also trimming speculative growth exposure in equity portfolios. The market appears to seize on any sign of easing inflation to be bullish, while remai...

Summary The first half of the year saw GDP contract slightly and GDI expand slightly, and I interpret that as little to no growth. The money market futures I follow and the market based models I track all put the peak in rates somewhere between March and June of next year. I d...

Summary We expect a third consecutive 75bp hike. High inflation means 100bp is a risk, but inflation expectations and corporate price plans look less threatening and the growth outlook is more uncertain, so we don’t see it. Still, a more hawkish message surrounding stic...

Summary Core CPI, excludes food and energy, rose from July's year-over-year reading of 5.9% to a YoY rate of 6.3% in August. FedEx reported dismal earnings on Friday sending the stock down 21%. A large part of the economic data seems to be indicating the economy is slowing. ...

Summary Officials at the world's major central banks, led by the US Fed, grew increasingly united in their resolve to bring inflation under control. The August about-face pulled the Europe ex UK and both US Russell indexes back down to the bottom of the performance ranks for the y...

Summary The market is telegraphing that what the Fed is planning to do is potentially destructive to the economy. Why does the Fed still think the only way to lower inflation is to undermine the economy? That's Phillips Curve thinking, and it has been debunked countless times. ...