VGLT News and Press, Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF From 09/28/22

Summary While the focus has been on Fed Funds Target range in wake of last week’s FOMC meeting, there is also another component to this query: the Treasury 10-Year yield. The Fed certainly made headlines at the just completed September FOMC meeting with their internal proje...

Summary Inflation as measured by government indices (e.g., CPI, PCE Deflator) is a lagging indicator of true inflation. True inflation is defined as the loss of purchasing power of a currency. Right now that is just not the case: the dollar is soaring against nearly every currency...

Summary The US 10yr yield is on the verge of hitting 4%. Only a few months back did we manage to get above 2%, the culmination of quite a heavy lift that started in 2021. This was followed by a snap up to 3%. Now that we are staring at a break above 4%, we think we could go st...

Summary 2022 has been the year with no safety in US Treasuries, with painful and persistent declines. With the BofA 10+ Year US Treasury Index already down 7% this month, September will be the eighth month this year that long-term US Treasuries have had a negative total return. ...

Summary We believe it is unlikely that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will navigate a pivot to a less-hawkish stance before early in 2023. We expect China to grow at a meager 2%-3% pace in 2022, with the potential for these risks to bleed into 2023, as a slowing developed-market consumer...

Summary In September 2022, there is no denying that inflation is back, and with a vengeance, though we can still debate how quickly it will fade, and to what level. Since 2008, it has become fashionable to attribute all movements in interest rates to Fed action or inaction, and as...

Summary Our US Equity ETF portfolio has a cash or cash equivalents target of 47%. Inflation may be peaking, but it is doing so at a much higher level than the Fed appears willing to accept. We are continuing with our strategically driven large cash reserve. We're eva...

Summary Inflation-adjusted interest rates are rising, rapidly. The lightning surge in real yields has a wide range of implications for macro and markets - a change that is now front and center for monitoring risk factors. As real yields rise further, the allure of locking in h...

Summary Last week, markets finally priced in the fact that inflation is not going away easily or soon. Consumers are feeling inflation, but may also be overly optimistic about the future. The most recent Survey Data from the New York Fed shows consumers' 1-year inflation expectati...

Summary Powell’s speech last Wednesday raised recession fears. The Atlanta Fed revised its third-quarter GDP estimate down to a +0.3% annual pace, down from its previous estimate of a +0.5% annual pace. U.S. interest rates also shot up in response to the Fed Chair’s ...