VGLT News and Press, Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF From 10/20/22

Summary In 2022, many asset classes that were highly correlated on the way up are remaining highly correlated on the way down. The price of incremental risk in some fixed income markets has de-compressed. We believe the role of fixed income in diversified portfolios will be as...

Summary As I've argued in recent posts, there's plenty of evidence to suggest the Fed has already tightened by enough to bring inflation down. The dollar is super-strong, real yields have risen sharply, the yield curve is inverted, commodity prices are plunging, and the housing ma...

Summary The “hotter” than expected September CPI report has basically eliminated the premise of another Powell Pivot any time soon. Service-related inflation is now the problem for the Fed. Since rate hikes began in March, the “services less energy services&#x...

Summary The US National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), designed to gauge market conditions, fell to 38 in October from 46 in September, now 50% lower than it was six months ago (below 50 is considered negative), and the largest year over ye...

Summary Persistent inflation spurred the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively in the third quarter, with 0.75% hikes in both July and September. Earnings estimates for equities had continued to climb during the early part of the year and only started to moderate...

Summary How far will policy rates need to go to tame inflation and is a recession imminent? Until central banks see a significant decline in wage growth, they’re likely to keep conditions tighter for longer. There’s evidence that conditions may continue to suppor...

Summary Chief Investment Officer Jon Maier and Head of Thematic Solutions Scott Helfstein offer their perspectives on the current investing landscape in what has been an extremely difficult year for investors. Signs suggest that producer prices have started to slow, and there are ...

Summary While Fed rate hikes remain Powell’s preferred tool to combat inflation, the reality is that inflation will drop markedly over the next several months. With households already struggling to make ends meet, the impact of Fed rate hikes on consumption, the main driver...

Summary September’s inflation numbers aren’t good. Prices rose 8.2 percent year-over-year, down slightly from the last release, yet still painful. Ideally, the Fed would ensure the real interest rate it pays on reserves matches what economists call the natural real i...

Summary Global GDP growth is still expected to be positive in 2022 (excluding Russia) but is expected to fall fairly dramatically in 2023. The U.S. Q3 2022 earnings season has just begun, and the outlook is for lower but still positive revenue and earnings growth. Inflation wi...