VGLT News and Press, Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF From 11/10/22

Summary Almost half of the option contracts being traded on the S&P 500, to the tune of $300 billion of notional each day, have one-day expiries or less. Across all listed ETFs and indices, an astounding $1 trillion of notional value in put options (bets that an index or ETF w...

Summary Rate hikes and tighter financial conditions drove fixed-income returns lower in 2022. The broad repricing of bonds and the higher starting yields we have now can help insulate investors from further losses. If we look at international bonds, this is probably the first ...

Summary At the September FOMC meeting, the Fed’s own median estimate placed the level at 4.6%. There is no doubt the Fed seems to be leaning toward a slower pace of rate hikes, but the terminal rate sure looks like it’s going to be headed in the 5% direction. Aga...

Summary Equity investors have sustained significant losses this year and are facing a long list of new uncertainties. Although interest rates have risen sharply over the past two years, they’re quite low from a historical perspective. Looking back two decades from Octob...

Summary With policy rates now meaningfully above neutral, the first phase of the tightening process is finished—and apparently successful. With the Fed’s credibility intact, it can move to a new phase: rolling out more rate hikes but at a slower pace. We expect t...

Summary There is a midterm election. But we are also at a pivotal point of the business cycle where the U.S. Fed is on a warpath against high inflation, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have more than doubled, leading economic indicators are slowing, and equities and government bonds are ...

Summary If the market for US government bonds were to soften materially, the pricing of countless other instruments could be impacted. It may well be that the global appetite for US government securities has been sated, at least for the moment. The IMF estimates that central b...

Summary The view that inflation will be around for some time is growing. The recent CPI numbers have come in hotter than expected. The elephant in the room remains that restrictive monetary policy means that liquidity is vanishing and the risk-reward for loaning money on a pro...

Summary The midterm election is historically a negative for the president’s party, and this year is expected to be no different. Thinking people might consider how a shift in US Senate seats can ameliorate the most significant monetary contraction and real estate-led global...

Summary The U.S. inflation report is likely to remain the most economic piece of data for markets, for the foreseeable future. Falling inflation eventually will allow central banks to perform the much-discussed pivot, both in terms of the speed of tightening and eventual terminal ...