VGLT News and Press, Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF From 12/07/22

Summary Expectations surrounding central bank policy, China’s gradual reopening and a lower US dollar are key to investor sentiment in the final stretch of 2022. Central banks have increased interest rates at the fastest rate on record, and there are signs that higher yields are ...

Summary At least one of two things should happen to warn that an official US recession is about to begin. One is a decline in the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (NOI) to below 48 and the other is a reversal of the yield curve’s trend from flattening/inverting to steepening. ...

Summary Olga and Hugo review their predictions and explore what surprised them in 2022, focusing on GDP, interest rates, earnings growth, energy prices, and the dollar. Our forecast for nominal GDP incorporates expectations for both growth and inflation. We were on the right track by an...

Summary That crude oil prices and inflation have a correlation is long known. The issue is which comes first, and is oil causal for inflation or vice versa. The comparison 12mo PCE, 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE, WTI spells out the reality. This is especially visible since 2002. The 12mo Tr...

Summary As Treasury yields have declined by a similar magnitude as to what they did last summer, stocks have rallied by a similar magnitude. The S&P 500 Volatility Index is a few ticks below its August low and close to its lows for the year, save for early January, when we had a bit...

Summary The Fed simply can't react as fast as the market does to changing realities - unfortunately, the Fed is usually "behind the curve." In any event, a 4.5% funds rate by year end is fully priced into the market and thus it should not be very impactful. What will change th...

Summary After a difficult 2022, cautious optimism may be in order. Here are our thoughts on market risks and opportunities heading into 2023. Through 2022, the market repriced for bad news — the Russian invasion of Ukraine, supply chain woes, stickier headline inflation and...

Summary The 3-month/10-year Treasury curve inverted last Thursday on better-than-expected CPI news. If the 10-year note can stay below 4% until the end of 2022, we could see the stock market rally extend into Christmas. Powell can announce a pause in rate hikes at the December...

Summary Expectations are the foundation of modern financial theory. And expectations - for inflation- are crucial for Fed policy. Inflation expectations seem quite steady and rarely changing although they are on the move now. Assessing inflation expectations using rankings...

Summary “Inflation expectations” feature prominently in the FOMC statements and in the minutes of FOMC meetings. The theory is that when inflation expectations remain “anchored,” even raging inflation will start settling down again, but when inflation e...