VGLT News and Press, Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF From 12/10/22

Summary Monetary tightening is aimed at slowing demand growth relative to aggregate supply, which will require a sustained period of below-trend US economic growth. The stakes are split between those who think FOMC rates will go up to 5% or more before a break. It is in the labor ma...

Summary While it’s been a tough year, the Federal Reserve has done investors an enormous favor in terms of the attractiveness of a wide swath of fixed-income asset classes that today look a lot more attractive than a year ago. Jay Powell and the FOMC did raise the Fed funds rate ...

Summary Amid the crosscurrents, two themes have prevailed during the post-pandemic years, which lend some perspective to the macroeconomic roadmap ahead: namely, the bipolar swings in macro policy and the forces of economic normalization. After one of the worst years for fixed income as...

Summary The debate continues daily over the Fed’s future policy. My expectation is a 50-basis point hike in a few days and another one early next year. Once the gap between the quit rate and job openings rate closes to something close to normal, we expect two things to happen. ...

Summary Today, the yield curve is more inverted than at any time since the early 1980s, so many are saying that means the chances of a recession are pretty high. Yes, today the curve is very inverted, but real yields are not particularly high. Low spreads suggest the market is relat...

Summary With yield levels surging across the asset class spectrum, one could conclude that a semblance of ‘normalcy’ has returned to the fixed income arena. As we are about to embark on a new calendar year, the fixed income landscape has changed dramatically. From an i...

Summary Stocks are overbought and overvalued relative to bonds. Over the next year or so, the macro and liquidity environment suggest bonds will fare significantly better than stocks. The growth cycle is a headwind for stocks, but a tailwind for bonds. Institutions will continue to ...

Summary The ECB didn’t use the flexibility offered by the PEPP’s redemption to lean against wide sovereign spreads in the months of October and November. Appetite for high-beta fixed income has allowed the ECB to reduce its overweight in peripheral bonds. There is no s...

Summary The S&P 500 (SPX) rallied nicely on the heels of what the market took as “dovish” comments from Fed Chair Powell on 11/30/22. The wrinkle in the fabric is that most of the gains are resulting from short covering, not real buyers, at least in the major indexes. ...

Summary Expectations surrounding central bank policy, China’s gradual reopening and a lower US dollar are key to investor sentiment in the final stretch of 2022. Central banks have increased interest rates at the fastest rate on record, and there are signs that higher yields are ...