VIOV News and Press, Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value From 01/06/23

Summary Initial claims dropped all the way down to 204K this week. Although both initial and continuing claims had strong showings, there is the caveat that the current period was smack dab in the middle of the holidays. Continuing claims improved falling to 1.694 million instead of...

Summary Last year was one best forgotten when it comes to equity returns. While large drops often indicate a rebound in the following year, 2023 is fraught with some early challenges. Chief among those challenges is the increasing probability of a recession. This is making investors ver...

Summary The market's sentiment profile is near historic lows by some measures. Contrarian principle says expect a major relief rally in 2023. S&P tends to significantly outperform in pre-election years. Investor sentiment is about as bummed out and bearish as one could...

Summary The S&P 500 has seen some choppy price action heading out of 2022 and into 2023, and that has seemed to have sent shivers down the spines of investors. Only 20.5% of respondents to the weekly sentiment survey run by AAII reported as bullish this week. Although bullish se...

Summary The U.S. monthly international trade deficit decreased in November 2022 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The goods deficit increased $15.3 billion in November to $84.1 billion. The headline number of -$61.5B was better than the -7...

Summary The massive Deficit down-spike in March fully reversed and has continued reversing sharply in the latest month after a brief hiatus. Even with the recent drop in November, the YTD deficit is still at all-time highs. The falling trade deficit is a result of falling imports no...

Summary Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance fell by 19,000 for the week ending December 31st, coming in at 204,000. When measured as a percentage of nonfarm payrolls, claims came in at 0.145 percent for November, up from 0.140 in October and above the record low of 0...

Summary A quick history of the last 4 bubbles. Why we keep bubbling. The bubble feeders. Bubble investment strategies, short term and long term. A quick bubble history. Since getting involved with the stock market in the mid-'80s, I've experienced four major bu...

Summary The FOMC December Fed minutes delivered a very clear and unmistakable message. The Fed needs financial conditions to tighten and remain tight. The December Jobs report is going to be a very big test for the market's resolve to fight the Fed. For further...

Summary 2023 has come in like an ongoing bear for stocks and commodities, while government bonds have seen their best start to any new year in more than 20 years. Stocks remain especially vulnerable since, even with last year’s drubbing, they enter 2023 still at the high end of h...