VTWV News and Press, Vanguard Russell 2000 Value Index Fund From 12/23/22

Summary The period of negative interest rate policy appears to be at its end. The Bank of Japan stunned the world this week when it changed its yield curve control limits. Rates are likely to stay higher than the market originally thought. Interest rates are moving sharply...

Summary The US economy appears resilient and vulnerable at the same time. Bond and stock markets seem to be on board with a bearish outlook for the economy, despite signs of strength in the labor market. If pricing pressure doesn’t fall fast enough in the months ahead to sati...

Summary Sentiment continues to show some of the most bearish readings we’ve seen since the 2022 bear market began. There is a high level of bearish bets right now, and these will likely need to unwind if we are going lower. We believe the biggest risk that investors face goin...

Summary The economy looks to be on track to grow at about a 2% annual rate—nothing spectacular, but not bad considering all the problems that still exist in the world and at home. Inflation in the third quarter slowed dramatically (from 9.1% to 4.4%), and that is consistent with ...

Summary Will central banks push economies in recession in 2023? The battle against inflation and whether central banks are winning. Why there may have to be job market destruction before interest rates can come down. Economic resiliency, especially in the job mar...

Summary Terminal rate pushed from 4.6% to 5.1% in Fed’s dot plot last Wednesday. FFR at 4.25-4.50%, which caused a selloff. Bears/Pessimists always sound sophisticated and smarter than the rest, but bulls/Optimists wind up with all of the money over time. The stock market bot...

Summary Individual investors have reduced equity exposure over this time period to the tune of $-448.2 billion for U.S. equity. With cumulative equity flows being negative, it is possible individual investors are under equity and now beginning to increase their exposure given the pullba...

Summary Real consumer spending overall rose at a revised 2.3 percent annualized rate and contributed a total of 1.54 percentage points to real GDP growth. Consumer services led the growth in overall consumer spending, posting a 3.7 percent annualized rate. Lingering upward price pre...

Summary The misery of 2022 has continued when it comes to investor sentiment. In the latest weekly AAII poll, bullish sentiment declined from 24.3% down to 20.3%. There hasn’t been a single week this year where bullish sentiment has been above its historical average of 37.6%...

Summary If 2022 was about the Fed, 2023 is likely to be about the Fed and earnings. If the economy is heading for a recession similar to 2001 and 2008, the S&P 500 could fall below 3,000. If the economy is heading for just a period of slower growth, then the S&P 500 could he...