VV News and Press, Vanguard Large-Cap From 03/13/24

2024-03-13 10:50:00 ET Summary The combination of the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index and the yield curve has been warning of imminent recession since September 2023. The March 2024 new high for the SPX suggests that a recession will not start any sooner than May 2024. By o...

2024-03-08 04:50:00 ET Summary In the last four months, we’ve seen quite a bit of change to the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard, with four indicators moving from recessionary red to yellow caution. We still think that the odds of a recession are 40% as the historical p...

2024-03-06 02:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method.  This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...

2024-02-24 12:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method.  This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...

2024-02-20 10:48:00 ET Summary Every state’s economy is, in some degree, unique, although the gravitational pull of the national economy casts a long shadow. The most reliable methodology for estimating recession risk in real-time is building an ensemble model that combines...

2024-02-19 10:35:23 ET Summary The inverted yield curve, historically a reliable indicator of recession, has not yet led to an economic contraction. Economist Campbell Harvey, who developed the yield-curve indicator, acknowledged its potential inaccuracy due to inflation-adjusted ...

2024-02-11 06:59:00 ET Summary The Fed had an FOMC meeting earlier this week, and a lot of people were saying the Fed was hawkish. I would say that the Fed was being more conservative, more cautious. It’s been a mixed bag with big tech, but nonetheless they are hitting thei...

2024-02-08 09:48:00 ET Summary The ISM manufacturing survey has been below 50 for 15 months in a row and sits today at 49.1. This survey, along with a lot of other manufacturing data and anecdotes, has been cited repeatedly by the economic bears as evidence we are heading for rece...

2024-02-08 01:57:00 ET Summary Methodology differences influence the classification of growth stocks. Meta's 2022 plunge and 2023 recovery exemplify style index impact. Structural nuances, like the absence of a momentum variable, shape index behavior. By Catherine ...

2024-02-06 10:51:00 ET Summary The total return of the S&P 500 remains behind Treasury bills since its January 2022 peak more than two years ago. Amid the enthusiasm and now nearly unanimous consensus that recession risk is behind us, I’ll reiterate our own view: the da...