REIT - Anatomy Of A Recession Update: Soft Landing Chances Rise

2024-03-08 04:50:00 ET

Summary

• In the last four months, we’ve seen quite a bit of change to the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard, with four indicators moving from recessionary red to yellow caution.
• We still think that the odds of a recession are 40% as the historical precedents that you normally see with a recession are still front and center.
• The expectation or our probability of a recession is still 40%, right at the average length of time between a first rate hike and the start of a recession.

In the latest release of the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard, we've seen that a particular indicator upgrade was enough to change the overall dashboard-going from red recession to yellow caution-the first time that it's been yellow since August of 2022. We speak with Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments about this change and his current base case for the US economy.

Transcript

Host: Welcome to Talking Markets with Franklin Templeton. We're here in the studio this evening with ClearBridge Investments' Head of Economic and Market Strategy, Jeff Schulze. ClearBridge is a specialist investment manager of Franklin Templeton, and Jeff is the architect of the Anatomy of a Recession Program, a program designed to provide you with thoughtful perspective on the state of the US economy.

It's great to have you here in the studio this evening, Jeff. Let's get right to it. You mentioned the odds of a soft landing were improving on the last podcast. Did you see anything specific last month in the data that made you more constructive on that potential outcome?...

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