XSVM News and Press, Invesco S&P SmallCap Value with Momentum ETF From 01/09/23

Summary 5 out of 10 leading indicators suggest the economy is not heading for a recession. However, 3 out of 10 of these leading indicators suggest the economy is heading for a recession. 2 out of these 10 leading indicators provide a neutral outlook of the economy. Overall, the...

Summary Avoiding growth last year paid enormous dividends, but I didn’t predict that growth stocks would fall in 2022, just that I couldn’t own them and fulfill our fiduciary duty. Near-term stock market performance is negatively correlated with economic growth. Commod...

Summary The stock market needs to fall around 20% to be at parity with lower-rated investment-grade bonds. The US corporate bond market is still more attractive than the US stock market. Be ready for the stock market to fall further after the Fed stops tightening, when the recession...

Summary Last year marked an inflection point for myriad historic global Bubbles. Attempts to gauge the status of market financial conditions will be obscured by ongoing market instability. Market structure will make the Fed’s job only more challenging. Bubble: A sel...

Summary The December CPI report is critical to the current market narrative. After back-to-back cooler-than-expected CPI readings, markets have gotten very optimistic about disinflation in 2023. All it will take is one misstep along the way to kill the market's hope of inflation mel...

Summary Global business activity fell for a fifth consecutive month in December, with the rate of decline moderating slightly amid improved supply conditions but still rounding off the worst quarter since 2009 barring lockdown months. At 48.2 in December, the Global PMI - compiled by S&...

Summary 2022 was a bad year for most kinds of core investment assets, from the least-risky Treasury securities to the most volatile corners of the equity market. We expect there will be a recession in the US at some point in 2023, driven by a combination of cyclical factors. Bond yi...

Summary Several estimates of fourth quarter economic activity for the US have turned higher recently. The odds that a recession has started, however, remain low, according to the current nowcast. Even if Q4 turns out to be stronger than some nowcasts suggest, headwinds are still blo...

Summary Trying to increase the Fed funds rate to 7%, 2.5% higher than they are currently, risks triggering a catastrophically deep recession. As economic growth expanded, increasing wages and savings, the entire period was marked by inflation surges. The problem comes if inflation r...

Summary The Services sector joins Manufacturing indicating the US economy is in poor condition. The global scene is no different and is confirming the forecasts for a global recession. I don't issue year-end forecasts. Events will happen that defy any forecast because that is what h...