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Summary Inflation is moving down. Fed actually has a more preferred measure of core inflation, which is core Personal Consumption Expenditures. The Fed is saying that a shallow recession basically is on the horizon. In our latest "Talking Markets" podcast, we meet with r...

Summary Inflation pressures were worse in the first half of last year at a time when the economy suffered two quarters of negative growth (inflation-adjusted), while inflation declined significantly in the second half, when the economy enjoyed two quarters of roughly 3% growth (inflation-ad...

Summary The latest CPI report for the United States suggests that the inflation spike after 2020 was transitory in the rather weak sense that I understood the term “transitory”. Obviously, the people who argued that inflation would subside in late 2021 - which was a consen...

Summary Services are nearly two-thirds of consumer spending. That’s where inflation is now raging. The Fed has been talking about services for months. The CPI for services spiked by 0.6% in December from November, and by 7.5% year-over-year, the worst year-over-year increase sinc...

Summary According to the BLS report, price inflation during the month decelerated slightly, coming in at the lowest year-over-year increase in fifteen months. According to the BLS, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose 6.5 percent year over year during December, before seasonal adju...

Summary Initial jobless claims posted another low reading in the latest print, with national seasonally adjusted claims totaling only 205K. That was down slightly from 206K the previous week; a number revised up by 2K. After that revision, this week’s reading was the stronges...

Summary Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance fell by 1,000 for the week ending January 7th, coming in at 205,000. While the level of weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance remains very low by historical comparison, there have been mixed signals recently, rai...

Summary AIER’s Everyday Price fell 1.3 percent in December following a decline of 0.2 percent in November. Food and home utilities were the top contributors to the rise in December but were more than offset by a plunge in motor fuel prices. The Consumer Price Index, which inc...

Summary The S&P 500 has rallied impressively in the past week leading up to Thursday’s CPI print, and bullish sentiment has lifted along with it. While the reading remains low, the percentage of respondents to the weekly AAII sentiment survey reporting as bullish rose from 20...

Summary The CPI report showed headline inflation was driven lower by energy and commodity prices. However, services inflation was very strong and showed no signs of cooling. Jobless claims continue to suggest a very low unemployment rate. Today's CPI continues to suggest the o...