ZF News and Press, Virtus Total Return Fund Inc. From 07/07/21

During much of last quarter, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model indicated an annual rate over 10% for the second quarter, but last Friday, they downgraded their estimate to the lowest number we’ve seen since the quarter began - an annual pace of just 7.8%, down from +8.6% on Jul...

Was the Fed message a shift in reaction function or economic outlook? Heightened rate sensitivity from incoming jobs and economic data. Strap in for a bumpy market this summer. For further details see: Will Interest Rates Rise As Jobs Recover This Summer?

We still see opportunities in the office sector of the global real estate market, but with changing work patterns driving dispersion across assets and locations. U.S. job growth accelerated in June, signaling labor market bottlenecks could be starting to ease. Stocks hit record highs....

Risk-adjusted performance for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to push higher in June, based on the annualized Sharpe ratio for a rolling ten-year window via monthly data. GMI’s 10-year SR increased to 0.84, the highest in 18 months. GMI is an unmanaged, market-value...

Recent economic data are showing signs of slowing growth. Trends in economic growth are highly correlated with S&P 500 earnings growth rates. The stock market has historically anticipated these slowing growth trends. For further details see: Decelerating Economic Gro...

As we mark the halfway point of the year, the economy is in full recovery mode and asset prices are soaring. As we enter the second half of the year though, it is hard to ignore some contradictions. Economic growth in H1 is going to print a big number, and yet, the 10-year Treasury no...

With all the talk about inflation expectations, central bank policy, rising Treasury yields and fiscal policies, equity investors are trying to make sense of the market by focusing on the interest rate sensitivity of valuations and the tug of war between growth stocks and value stocks. ...

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) resumed an upward drift in June, rising to an annualized 6.0%. The current risk premium forecast for GMI - 6.0% - suggests that multi-asset-class strategies will generate lower returns relative to results posted in recent yea...

The first signs of inflation have bubbled up in the market. It is unclear if inflation will be sustainable, but the risks of entering a new inflationary regime need to be considered. Many see a return to the pre-COVID environment of secular stagnation. But a breakout to higher inflati...

The reopening should continue across the major developed economies through the second half of 2021. The focus for markets has shifted to the strength of the growth rebound, the implications for inflation and the timing of central bank moves to taper asset purchases and eventually rais...