The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction - to determine if the economy has reached a "Turning Point."
Conclusion: my recession probability is 15%. Manufacturing is the main area of concern: orders are down, which has caused a drop in weekly hours, which has negatively impacted industrial production. Other numbers are pointing towards a continued expansion: there is little to no stress in the financial markets, the housing market is strong as is