The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction -- to see if the economy has reached a "Turning Point."
I'm lowering my recession probability in the next 6-12 months to 20%. We still need to be watchful of business sector weakness, especially the possibility of soft international conditions leaking into the US. But there were three key developments this week:
- 1-unit building permits printed their fourth consecutive increase and are now at expansion highs.