If our TCB liquidity models are correct, their implications being likewise bolstered by the seasonality of major indexes' 5-year averages, there could be a small recovery soon, but there is further pain for the markets up ahead. The implications of these models: if there's recovery soon, and markets top by late in the month, the next trough may be seen by late October-early November (see chart below).
The seasonality of the major indices' 5-year averages (NDX and SPX as proxies) also provide support for this thesis: a recovery from here (September 14) for about a