We didn't know what we thought we knew.
As far as market participants understood it, a Sino-US trade pact was a done deal. Last year's escalations gave way to a steady stream of recycled headlines about "progress" in 2019. Talks are always "constructive", according to Steve Mnuchin. China is "coming around" on "key sticking points", Larry Kudlow will tell you. Ever the bad cop to Mnuchin's good cop, Bob Lighthizer habitually strikes a caution tone. "We're not there just yet", Bob likes to say.
After four months of that, traders understandably tuned out. You can