Summary
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, pulled back by 3.4 percentage points to 34.1%.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, declined 0.4 percentage points to 37.1%.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rebounded 3.8 percentage points to 28.8%.
Neutral sentiment declined but still extended its streak of above-average readings in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Bullish sentiment also decreased, while bearish sentiment rose.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, pulled back by 3.4 percentage points to 34.1%. Optimism is back below its historical average of 37.5% after being at the average last week for the first time in 58 weeks.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, declined 0.4 percentage points to 37.1%. Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.5% for the seventh consecutive week. This is the longest streak of above-average neutral sentiment since a seven-week stretch in December 2021 and January 2022.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rebounded 3.8 percentage points to 28.8%. Pessimism is below its historical average of 31.0% for just the fifth time out of the past 65 weeks. Bearish sentiment is also below average on consecutive weeks for the first time since a five-week stretch in October and November 2021.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) is 5.3%. This is the first time optimism has exceeded pessimism on consecutive weeks since November 2021.
This year’s rebound in stock prices along with less aggressive monetary policy are likely contributing to the improved level of optimism. Nonetheless, concerns about the economy, inflation and corporate earnings remain.
This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:
- Bullish: 34.1%, down 3.4 percentage points
- Neutral: 37.1%, down 0.4 percentage points
- Bearish: 28.8%, up 3.8 percentage points
Historical averages:
- Bullish: 37.5%
- Neutral: 31.5%
- Bearish: 31.0%
The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987. The survey and its results are available online.
For further details see:
AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Stays Above Average For Seventh Week