2024-02-12 09:06:20 ET
Summary
- A small sample of patient anecdotes on the internet suggest that buntanetap has some degree of underlying activity in Parkinson’s disease (PD).
- 24-38% of patient anecdotes report a noticeable/measurable improvement in Parkinson’s symptoms, which could suggest that a majority of patients in the higher 20 mg (higher dose) cohort experienced an improvement.
- A positive topline readout for the buntanetap 20mg dose would have a positive readthrough to the Alzheimer’s results due in 2Q24.
- The company has the overhang of needing to raise cash imminently and faces general market skepticism.
Intro
Annovis Bio ( ANVS ) is set to report the results of its Phase 3 trial in early-stage Parkinson’s disease ((PD)) in the coming weeks. The company’s lead asset, buntanetap (formerly known as posiphen), is a translational inhibitor of alpha synucelein (associated with PD), amyloid precursor protein (Alzheimer’s), TDP-43 (ALS), and other proteins associated with neurodegenerative disease (further discussion of mechanism in our initiation report). While Annovis also has an ongoing Phase 3 trial in Alzheimer’s disease ((AD)) that is expected to report data in the 2Q24, this report aims to analyze and provide insight regarding the prospects of the Phase 3 PD trial.
Uniquely, there are a number of patients from the Phase 3 PD trial that have shared their experiences online. These anecdotes come with a number of caveats, chiefly that their extrapolation to the whole study is inherently limited. Still, we believe there are insights that can be drawn from the anecdotes. We also discuss Parkinson’s rating scales and historical disease progression data.
Thesis
We believe the anecdotal data, while limited to a sample of just 21 patients, suggests that buntanetap has some degree of underlying activity in PD. A minority of roughly 24-38% (depending on interpretation) of anecdotal patients appear to report experiencing clear, clinically meaningful improvements from baseline on various PD symptoms. These reports include subjective improvements (e.g. energy, balance, cognition), objective/measurable improvements (e.g. timed typing test, arm swing), and background dopaminergic medication reductions. To us, the fact that there are any patients at all reporting clear and noticeable improvements is encouraging, even if it is in a minority portion of a small sample of anecdotes....
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Annovis: Potentially Encouraging Anecdotes, Weighing Phase 3 Parkinson's Prospects