- Jobs printed this morning much lower than anticipated.
- A month before Christmas, retail job creation FELL, even as transport and warehouse employment climbed.
- The implications for retail real estate are frightening. If retail stores fail, look for some landlords to fail, too. Worse, look for huge write-downs of bank loan portfolios.
- We think habits adopted in the pandemic may carry over and cause businesses and individuals to re-think how they do things. That means more "work from home," more cooking and less dining/entertainment.
- Wages may actually decline as workers no longer have commuting, dry-cleaning, and business wardrobe expenses. That exacerbates the risk of dis- and deflation we have long feared. A liquidity trap on the horizon?
For further details see:
Beware: Sharp Shortfall In November Employment Is A Yellow Caution