I’ve noticed an interesting development recently. Traders and investors are mostly split into 2 camps: those who are extremely bullish and think that December 2018 marked a cyclical bottom, and those who are extremely bearish and think that stocks will crash.
I think a middle ground scenario is more likely – this is just a normal rally towards the end of a bull market. A massive breakaway rally that will last years is unlikely, but neither is an imminent crash.
- Fundamentals (long term): no significant U.S. macro deterioration, but the long term risk:reward doesn’t favor