Those who followed us know that our proprietary model concluded a high probability of entering a recession in 2020. The coronavirus outbreak came on top of that. It is most likely the straw that broke the camel's back as it sent major parts of China into lockdown. The epidemic has distinct similarities to the subprime crisis in 2007. There is a general sense of public distrust as Chinese censorship and disinformation triggered fear during the past few weeks. The reaction to the virus may have been exaggerated as pictures of empty streets in Chinese metropoles