- Oil prices are currently above what consensus expected oil to be in 2021.
- Looking ahead, sell-side analysts continue to maintain a stable oil price projection for the years ahead.
- But the boom-bust like sequence of commodity prices in general make linear extrapolation rather useless.
- In addition, the consensus narrative of peak oil demand will in itself turn the narrative on its head.
- Linear extrapolation of the oil market has never worked, perhaps the consensus will have to learn it the hard way.
For further details see:
Consensus Remains Anchored To A Linear Extrapolation Of Oil Prices