Introduction
Several months ago, I looked at precursors to a consumer-led recession, and in a separate article set forth the order in which historically consumer behavior has turned prior to a consumer-led recession. Last week, I updated my look at precursors to a producer-led recession.
This post updates my look at consumers.
The mechanics of a consumer-led recession
To reiterate what I wrote several months ago, the typical order leading up to a consumer-led recession has been:
(1) interest rates rise;
(2) the yield curve inverts;
(3) lending standards tighten;
(4) motor vehicle