2024-06-04 11:25:00 ET
Summary
- When investors bid up asset prices that exceed underlying earnings growth rates, market bubbles were previously present.
- While sufficient data suggests that economic growth rates are weakening, investors are again chasing assets with near reckless abandon.
- Investors are willing to take on risk, overpay for underlying valuations, and rationalize their actions.
In 2022, we discussed the market's deviations from long-term growth trends. That discussion centered on Jeremy Grantham's commentary about market bubbles. To wit:
" All 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend. But before they did, a handful went on to become superbubbles of 3-sigma or greater: in the U.S. in 1929 and 2000 and in Japan in 1989. There were also superbubbles in housing in the U.S. in 2006 and Japan in 1989. All five of these superbubbles corrected all the way back to trend with much greater and longer pain than average.
Today in the U.S. we are in the fourth superbubble of the last hundred years."
Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
For further details see:
Deviations From Long-Term Growth Trends Back To Extremes