America's biggest banks are reporting better than expected earnings results for the second quarter, but I wouldn't make a long-term bet on the group moving forward. It isn't because of the negative implications of the continuing trade war with China or the fact that we have a suddenly dovish Fed. It also isn't due to expectations for lower investment banking revenue or a decline in trading profits. These are all still headwinds, but what concerns me the most are the cyclical implications of the chart below.
It is utter nonsense that banks are increasing dividends