Editor's note: This article was originally published on July 26, 2019 by James Hamilton here.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.1% annual rate in the second quarter of 2019. That's pretty near the 2.2% average rate since the recovery from the Great Recession began in 2009:Q3.
Real GDP growth at an annual rate, 1947:Q2-2019:Q2, with the 1947-2019 historical average (3.1%) in blue and post-Great-Recession average (2.2%) in red.
That brought the Econbrowser Recession Indicator Index to 2.9%, consistent with the favorable low levels we've seen