Dry bulk market thesis intact. Hard to avoid volatility, but intermediate outlook remains promising. Dry bulk TCE rates moving higher on firm demand plus port congestion and coal shortages. Also, the order book remains muted, and the new carbon emission regulations (EEXI) in January 2023 could trigger slow steaming that effectively lowers supply. While Chinese industry could be curtailed ahead of 2022 Winter Olympics and volatility/seasonality is possible, there is no doubt that dry bulk bulk rates have been higher than expected. Comments from today's Capital Link Dry Bulk Sector Panel should support our view.Increasing 2021 EBITDA estimate to reflect acquisitions, recent time charters and index rate adjustments. To reflect acquisitions and higher TCE rate estimates, we are moving 2021 EBITDA to $45.5 million based on TCE rates of $25.3k/day. The Blessed Luck was already in our estimate so the Good Heart and higher rates account for the estimate increase.Increasing 2022 EBITDA estimate to $62.4 million based on TCE rates of $28.9k/day. Visibility is limited and seasonality is expected, but acquisitions and higher than expected 2H2021 TCE rates set a good tone for next year. With only the Blessed Luck booked for a minimum of 120 days at $19.5k/day into April 2022 and the Pantelis working at $30.3k/day into February, visibility is relatively low, but operating leverage is very high; each $1.0k/day change in TCE rates has a +/- $1.4 million, or $0.53/share, impact on cash flow.Fleet expansion continued and Good Heart acquisition completed. Debt conversion, ATM program and new term loans funded recent acquisitions. In a 6-K filing last week, several 3Q2021 financing events were disclosed. In August and September, the ATM program raised ~$6.2 million. In addition, total debt of $39.0 million was added to finance/refinance recent acquisitions and retire existing debt of $8.7 million.Maintain Outperform rating and increase price target to $45/share from $35/share to reflect firm dry bulk market fundamentals. Recent stock price performance has been positive in response to the strongest dry bulk market fundamentals in ten years. Even though the stock is up 398% this year, including a 3Q2021 gain of 28%, the stock has pulled back by 12% in 4Q2021 and we believe that the risk/reward profile remains attractive based on firm bulk market fundamentals and an expanded fleet. Read More >>