The Fed held its policy rate steady at December's meeting, as was widely expected. Positive signs in the U.S. economy since the rate cut in October seem to have increased the Federal Reserve's confidence that its "mid-cycle adjustment" (three cuts in a row) has helped engineer a soft landing, and that further cuts are unnecessary. Still, rate hikes likely aren't imminent either, as inflationary pressures still look manageable.
Encouraging economic developments
While we still think the Fed's above-consensus 2% forecast for 2020 real growth is optimistic, a handful of recent data points have been encouraging